Published Papers
Macroeconomies as constructively rational games
Abstract
Real-world decision-makers are forced to be locally constructive; that is, their decisions are necessarily constrained by their interaction networks, information, beliefs, and physical states. This study transforms an otherwise standard dynamic macroeconomic model into an open-ended dynamic game by requiring consumers and firms with intertemporal utility and profit objectives to be locally constructive. Tested locally constructive decision processes for the consumers and firms range from simple reactive reinforcement learning to adaptive dynamic programming (ADP). Computational experiments are used to explore macroeconomic performance under alternative decision-process combinations relative to a social planner benchmark solution. A key finding is that simpler decision processes can outperform more sophisticated decision processes such as ADP. However, memory length permitting some degree of adaptive foresight is critical for good performance.
Ekaterina Sinitskaya, Leigh Tesfatsion, Macroeconomies as constructively rational games, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 61, December 2015, Pages 152-182, ISSN 0165-1889, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2015.09.011
Examining The Influence of Solar Panel Installers On Design Innovation And Market Penetration
Abstract
This work uses an agent-based model to examine how installers of photovoltaic (PV) panels influence panel design and the success of residential solar energy. It provides a novel approach to modelling intermediary stakeholder influence on product design, focusing on installer decisions instead of the typical solar stakeholder foci of the final customer (homeowners) and the designer/manufacturer. Installers restrict homeowner choice to a subset of all panel options available, and, consequentially, determine medium-term market dynamics in terms of quantity and design specifications of panel installations. This model investigates installer profit-maximization strategies of exploring new panel designs offered by manufacturers vs. exploiting market-tested technology. Manufacturer design decisions and homeowner purchase decisions are modeled. Realistic details provided from installer and homeowner interviews are included. For example, installers must estimate panel reliability instead of trusting manufacturer statistics, and homeowners make purchase decisions based in part on installer reputation. We find that installers pursue new and more-efficient panels over sticking-with market-tested technology under a variety of panel-reliability scenarios and two different state scenarios (California and Massachusetts). Results indicate that it does not matter if installers are predisposed to an exploration or exploitation strategy—both types choose to explore new panels with higher efficiency.
Sinitskaya, E., Gomez, K., Bao, Q., Yang, M., and MacDonald, E. Examining The Influence of Solar Panel Installers On Design Innovation And Market Penetration // ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference/Design Automation Conference, Cleveland, OH, August 6-9, 2017
Dissertation
Computational modeling of an economy using elements of artificial intelligence
Abstract
The goal of this dissertation was to develop tools for analyzing economic performance while agents were constrained to be constructively rational. To achieve this goal, firstly, tools for introducing forward-looking agents into agent-based frameworks were developed. These agents were shown to be a feasible alternative to the assumption of rational expectations, albeit with some limitations, as could be expected from any computational method. Several testing frameworks were also developed. Smaller ones were used to explore economic effects of decision procedures used by agents on macro- and micro-levels. A more advanced framework was formulated to facilitate the analysis of the interactions between institutional structures and macroeconomic policies. These frameworks were shown to be scalable and useful tools for the analysis of both micro-level decisions of agents and macroeconomic policies of central banks.
Working Papers
Sinitskaya, E. What does it mean to be smart? Game-theoretic view of optimal decision-making under uncertainty at the level of macroeconomy (2017). In preparation. Code is open sourced at GAIM
Gomez, K., Sinitskaya, E., Bao, Q., MacDonald, E., and Yang, M. Designing Linked Journey Maps to Understand the Complexities of the Residential Solar Energy Market (2017). In preparation.
Sinitskaya, E., Bao, Q., Yang, M., and MacDonald, E. How much do we know to design optimal policy for the residential PV market? (2017). In preparation.